Overshoot
The Ecological Basis of Revolutions
by William Catton
A modern theory to explain our current population predicament was set down by William Catton in his book Overshoot:The Ecological Basis of Revolutions. As you read the brief summary below, think about how Malthus might react to these ideas.
Catton begins by defining “carrying capacity” as the maximum permanently supportable population - that is, the number of people a given environment can support indefinitely. If this number is exceeded, then environmental damage will occur, and this in time will reduce the carrying capacity. A sustainable economic system is one that does not exceed the carrying capacity.
To explain his perspective on the current population situation, Catton begins with a historical perspective. According to his view, our population crisis had its origins in the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries, which Catton referred to as "the Age of Exuberance." During this time an attitudinal revolution occurred as a result of the tremendous progress experienced in these times. The earth's carrying capacity grew, largely as a result of Europeans taking over lands that were being used less intensively by aboriginal peoples. Those who benefitted came to believe that their good fortune was a result of the "limitlessness" of the earth's resources, and they saw no reason why this shouldn't go on forever. Catton called this the “cornucopian myth.”
During the Industrial Revolution the earth's carrying capacity underwent a period of even greater growth. This was partly because of the settling of new lands in the Americas and elsewhere and partly because of an increase in the consumption of resources, in particular fossil fuels. This was done by drawing down ("stealing from the future") from a finite (nonrenewable) reservoir of resources. Thus carrying capacity was greatly enlarged and populations grew. It should be noted that an increase in carrying capacity presents a choice: the same number of people can live at a higher standard or a larger number can live at previous standards.
The drawing down of these finite resources has primarily been carried out by the Developed Countries (DCs). In these countries the results have been substantial increases in population and standards of living. In the rest of the world, as we have seen, populations have increased dramatically but living standards have not improved much. In the Less Developed Countries (LDCs), industrialization and urbanization, together with large-scale resource consumption, did not occur to nearly the same extent as in the DCs. However, these countries did gradually gain access to those innovations that caused death rates to fall; consequently their populations have grown rapidly.
As these developments were unfolding, the technological achievements that have occurred, particularly since the Second World War, have been truly startling. One consequence of this is that people have come to expect that whatever problems may confront us there will always be new technology to deal with them. This may however be a rather dangerous delusion. We are gambling; there are no guarantees that technology will come up with the answers. In addition, we are placing great demands on technology for quick solutions to complex problems. In the past, technological breakthroughs contributed to the growth of carrying capacity and population increases followed. But many of these technological breakthroughs created problems of their own, particularly in terms of their impact on the environment. Now population growth is so rapid that it creates a constant need for new technology to help support the additional people.
But there is danger in rushing these innovations. Time is needed to assess their impact on people and the environment. Rapid population growth may not permit us to take this time and we may be forced to take terrible risks. Not only are we being deluded that technology will save us but, according to Catton, industrialization and technology have helped us to develop a phantom carrying capacity.
By drawing down resources that are largely non-renewable and damaging our environmental support systems, we have overshot our permanent carrying capacity. We are living beyond our means; our economic systems are not sustainable.
Sooner or later serious failures in our life-support systems will cause a rapid decline, or die-off, of population. While the extent of this die-off cannot be predicted, Catton states that eventually the population will return to a level that can be permanently supported. But because of the environmental damage that has already been done, it will be a much lower population level than existed before the die-off began.
While Catton's views may seem pessimistic, he does believe disaster can be averted. In his view the successful survival of our species will require the development of new attitudes that will enable us to see the world differently than we do now. Such new attitudes must begin with the understanding that human life, in the long run, can only proceed if we do not draw down from the earth's stock of life-sustaining resources. We must learn to live in harmony with natural systems, taking only those things that can be replaced and that do not destroy the earth's life-support systems.