Tab 1: Stage 1 Pre-Industrial
Both birth rate (BR) and death rate (DR) are high and uncontrolled (fluctuating annually). The overall population growth is slow and fluctuating.
BR is uncontrolled > 35/1000
DR is uncontrolled > 35/1000.
The average, over decades show slightly higher BR – therefore population growth is very low and slow.
These are mostly agricultural populations that experience:
Low standards of living;
Lack of family planning as life expectancy at birth is around 30 years with only a 50-60% chance of reaching the age of 5, children are a form of insurance policy and retirement plan all in one;
Natural and human disasters including disease (lacking health care), war, famine, etc.
High levels of disease, poor sanitation, limited safe water, generally short lives due to these harsh conditions.
No countries are still in this stage; however, in remote areas it may still exist.
Tab 2: Stage 2 Transitional
Technology influences population growth. Science, medicine, and public health advances such as the 1801 smallpox vaccine, cause a decline in the DR and people live longer. The BR remains high so the overall population begins to rise steadily.
BR remains uncontrolled > 35/1000
DR is becoming controlled 20-35/1000
Advances that extend life expectancy include:
“Germ theory” of disease (improved understanding of the ways that germs move and therefore how to protect against many previously life threatening diseases);
Decreased infant mortality;
Better sanitation and sewage disposal;
Improved hygiene (water for drinking is boiled);
Improved food production, storage and transportation.
Since the BR remains high and a declining DR creates a population explosion as more children survive to reach childbearing age.
Higher standards of living and more social programs help increase life expectancy the DR decreases further.
The longer this stage lasts the larger the population becomes as does the pressure on the natural environment.
Worst position – death control is established but birth control is not creating pressures on the environment, housing, jobs, health care, social security, etc.
Malawi, Gambia, and Bangladesh are in this stage.
Diseases that are rare in MEDCs still kill millions in LEDCs – these are “diseases of poverty” such as tuberculosis, diarrhea, measles.
MEDC found solutions to problems allowing LEDC to “import” the solutions; HOWEVER they don’t have the rate of development of the economy that LEDCs had.
In LEDCs population remains largely rural therefore BR did not change (remained high) and DR in LEDC tends to fall faster than in MEDCs so population growth is faster in LEDCs than it was for MEDCs.
Tab 3: Stage 3 Industrial
This stage is influenced by shifting social and cultural norms. The BR starts to fall while DR continues to fall causing continued population explosion.
BR Becoming Controlled 20-40/1000
DR Controlled, <20/1000
Family planning is available and family size begins to decrease; greater social acceptance of smaller, even childless families;
Women entering the workforce results in lower BR;
Decreasing infant mortality rates;
Industrial Revolution creates need for workers, child labour and labour laws;
Urbanization on the increase;
Increased standard of living;
Changing status of women;
Education / employment opportunities for women;
Improved pension / gov’t policies for elderly.
MEDCs prefer average family size of 2 children while LEDCs prefer average family size of 3-5 children.
Think about it. WHY the difference?
Make an entry in your Thinking Log where you use the following criteria to explain the difference between MEDCs and LEDCs as they exit the Industrial stage of the Demographic Transition Model.
Social developments;
Technological developments;
Industrial vs. rural societal developments.
Slower natural increase does not necessarily reduce population pressures on the country’s resources because the population base which exploded during stage 2 is now even larger.
Canada, mid 19th Century, was in this stage, today China; Brazil
Tab 4: Stage 4 Post Industrial
Low and steady BR and DR causes population growth to slow.
BR Controlled < 20/1000
DR Controlled < 20/1000
Role of women (empowerment through education and employment) is key at this stage. Women are delaying childbirth;
DR may rise slightly because older people form a larger proportion of the total population;
Maybe “baby booms”;
Consumer society – heavy impact on environment;
North America, Western Europe are in this stage.
Tab 5: Stage 5?
While there isn’t sufficient global data to add a 5th stage to the DTM, there are a number of countries, including Russia, where the DR is higher than the BR causing a declining population.
BR Uncontrolled < 10/1000
DR Higher than the birth rate
The impact of this declining population growth rate could be loss of culture, and a reduction of the environmental impact the local communities are making.
Tab 6: Criticism of the TDM
All models have limitations and the demographic transition model is no exception:
It is a Western-centric view of the world that assumes all countries will move through the stages.
The model in no way considers the impact of migration, or political policies designed to control population growth (1 Child policy in China).
The model in no way references events such as pandemics (HIV/AIDS) or war (Malthusian checks).
For Canada pro-immigration policies and attitudes means that Canada, the USA and Australia did not experience the early stages of the model.
Only time will tell if all countries (especially the LEDCs of Africa) will become fully industrialized. With loss of control and ownership of many of their natural resources this seems unlikely for many African nations.
Addresses only total population growth. Should it also consider the quality of life through the various stages?